Evaluate a model forecasting next month's demand.
Future sales must not enter training.
Which split is appropriate?
Train on earlier periods and validate or test on later periods, preserving the time order.
Detailed explanation
Results cannot be reproduced or interpreted.
This mirrors production forecasting and prevents future leakage.
The independent test period is lost.
Future values may leak into training.
Check official documentation
Compare the following points with the official documentation.
AWS公式AIF-C01ガイドDomain 1.3のデータ分割・リーケージを確認する。
Official references
What to confirm
時系列では無作為分割より時間順分割が必要な理由を説明できる。
Key points
- Time order
- Future information
- Evaluation period
Notes
- Environment: AWS公式AIF-C01試験ガイドとAWS公式ドキュメントの確認
- Compare the definition with the AIF-C01 objective and the service documentation before applying it.
- Keep the concept separate from a particular answer choice or implementation step.
Foundation review
Causal availability
A feature is valid only if the real workflow would know it at the prediction timestamp.
Forward testing
Later periods provide a more realistic test of future performance than a random shuffle.